Trump’s Immigration Policies Linked to 1.2M Worker Decline

• Sep 01, 2025

Federal data shows the U.S. workforce has shrunk by 1.2 million immigrant workers since January, marking a major shift under President Trump’s immigration policies. The drop includes both legal and undocumented workers, according to Census Bureau data analyzed by the Pew Research Center.

The decrease reflects a sharp slowdown in immigration, as Trump continues to emphasize deportations and stricter enforcement at the border. While he has said the focus is on “dangerous criminals,” records show that most people detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) had no criminal convictions. Meanwhile, illegal border crossings have declined significantly since he took office.

Pew estimates that the total number of undocumented immigrants peaked at around 14 million in 2023 but has since dropped, partly due to increased deportations and fewer protections. Oxford Economics projects net immigration will fall to about 500,000 annually by year-end and remain at that level through 2028.

Immigrants make up nearly 20 percent of the U.S. workforce, with particularly high representation in sectors such as farming, construction, and services. Pew researcher Stephanie Kramer noted that 45 percent of farming and forestry workers, 30 percent of construction workers, and 24 percent of service workers are immigrants. Their absence is already being felt in states that rely heavily on immigrant labor.

Farmers and business owners say ICE raids have disrupted operations. In Texas, crops were left to rot when farmworkers were detained, while in California, citrus and avocado growers faced labor shortages. Farmworker advocates report widespread fear, with arrests taking place at laundromats and on the roadside.

Construction has also been hit hard. Government data shows job losses in nearly half of U.S. metro areas, with Southern California among the hardest affected. Industry leaders say many projects have stalled because contractors cannot find enough qualified workers.

The impact extends to health care, where immigrants make up 43 percent of home health aides. Union leaders warn that staffing shortages could worsen if deportations continue, leaving millions of Americans without reliable long-term care.

Economists caution that fewer immigrant workers may tighten labor markets further. Immigrants often move to states with higher job demand, helping to ease shortages. With U.S. labor mobility in decline since the 1980s, experts say losing that flexibility could weaken growth.

For now, the decline represents a small share of the nation’s 171 million workers. But economists warn that agriculture, construction, and health care—industries deeply reliant on immigrants—face the greatest risks