US Antitrust Push Could Force Google to Sell Chrome

• Nov 23, 2024

US antitrust lawyers are urging a judge to order Google to sell its Chrome browser, aiming to curb the company's dominance in online search. This bold proposal, which could reshape the tech giant's future, was submitted by the Department of Justice (DOJ) to US District Court Judge Amit Mehta, who is expected to decide on measures addressing Google's monopoly power in 2024.

Launched in 2008, Chrome dominates the browser market, significantly outpacing competitors like Microsoft’s Edge and Apple’s Safari. The browser is not just a market leader but also a cornerstone of Google's business model, serving as a source of user data to train its algorithms and boost other services like Google Maps. Analysts warn that selling Chrome would drastically alter Google’s operations.

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives called the proposal a “huge gut punch” for Google. Syracuse University advertising professor Beth Egan added that the move would disrupt Google's business model but believed the company would adapt. “I don’t think divesting Chrome will kill Google,” Egan said, noting that the disruption could ultimately impact users rather than the company.

Chrome’s Value and Potential Buyers

Chrome, with over three billion users globally, could be worth at least $15 billion, according to Bloomberg analysts. However, valuing Chrome is challenging due to the lack of precedent. For comparison, a Chinese investment group purchased Opera’s browser in 2016 for $600 million, despite Opera having only 350 million users at the time.

Finding a buyer for Chrome could be complicated. Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf, a senior analyst at Emarketer, pointed out that companies capable of affording Chrome are often themselves under antitrust scrutiny. She speculated that US-based artificial intelligence firms might be contenders, though such a deal could raise additional antitrust concerns.

Elon Musk’s AI ventures, backed by his financial resources and political connections, could emerge as a potential buyer. However, this raises questions about regulatory approval and competition policy.

Impact on Users and Competitors

Analysts agree that Chrome’s popularity would likely endure regardless of its ownership, provided it retains its key features and continues to innovate. “Convenience, trust, and experience drive user loyalty,” Mitchell-Wolf noted.

The DOJ argues that Chrome’s dominance stems from being the default browser on many devices, a claim some analysts dispute. Critics argue that breaking up Google may not lead to fairer competition but could instead disrupt the user experience.

Political and Legal Challenges

Judge Mehta may not fully embrace the DOJ’s recommendations, with experts describing the proposed remedies as extreme. Adding to the uncertainty is the incoming Trump administration, which has shown mixed views on breaking up Google. While President-elect Trump previously opposed dismantling the company, citing concerns about global competitiveness, his administration’s stance remains unpredictable.

The case highlights the complexities of balancing antitrust enforcement, innovation, and international competitiveness. If Chrome is sold, it could redefine the browser market and shake up the broader tech landscape.