Jimmy Lai’s Trial Signals Hong Kong’s Fall and Global Warning

• Aug 14, 2025

Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai, long seen as both a symbol of defiance and a target of Beijing’s ire, is entering the final stage of his trial under China’s national security law.

The 77-year-old faces charges of colluding with foreign forces, which could see him spend the rest of his life in prison. Closing arguments begin this week, with his case drawing global attention. British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has urged Lai’s release, but Beijing refuses to recognise his dual citizenship, treating him solely as a Chinese national.

Lai has been in custody since December 2020 and is the most prominent figure prosecuted under the sweeping security law imposed after mass pro-democracy protests in 2019. The legislation criminalises acts seen as subversion, secession, or collusion with foreign powers. Critics say it has dismantled Hong Kong’s freedoms and silenced dissent.

Born in Guangzhou, Lai fled mainland China at 12, arriving in Hong Kong as a stowaway. He built a fortune through the Giordano clothing brand but became a vocal critic of Beijing after the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. He later founded Apple Daily, a pro-democracy newspaper that remained outspoken until it was shut down in 2021 following police raids and asset freezes.

Lai’s arrest and prosecution are seen by supporters as politically motivated, targeting his unwavering defense of Hong Kong’s freedoms. Over the years, he has survived arson attacks, an assassination plot, and repeated arrests, yet continued to challenge Beijing openly.

The fall of Hong Kong, however, was not sudden. Beijing’s 2020 national security law marked a gradual but deliberate erosion of autonomy. The international community’s muted response has emboldened China, raising fears over Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Analysts warn that Taiwan—home to 24 million people and a major hub in the global tech supply chain—could be Beijing’s next target. Control over the South China Sea, a vital trade route with rich energy reserves, would further expand China’s influence.

Lai’s imprisonment stands as both a personal tragedy and a geopolitical warning. His 2020 prediction that the security law would spell the “death knell” for Hong Kong has proven true. The world must now decide whether Taiwan and the South China Sea will meet the same fate—or whether clear deterrence can prevent it.