Guinea-Bissau's President Embalo Shocks Nation by Declining Second Term Amid Political Unrest

• Sep 13, 2024

Guinea-Bissau’s President, Umaro Cissoko Embalo, surprised the nation on Thursday with an unexpected announcement—he will not seek a second term in the upcoming November elections. Embalo, who is 51 years old, was elected in January 2020, succeeding the former president, Jose Mario Vaz. He won a decisive victory, securing 54% of the vote against his main rival, Domingos Simoes Pereira. Despite being eligible to run for another term, Embalo has chosen to step aside, a decision that could lead to political uncertainty in this historically unstable country of two million people.

The announcement came at the end of a council of ministers meeting late Thursday. Embalo shared that it was his wife who convinced him not to pursue a second term in office. Interestingly, while he made it clear that he would not continue, he also mentioned that his successor would not be Domingos Simoes Pereira, Braima Camara, or Nuno Gomes Na Bian—three prominent opposition politicians. He gave no further details or hints about who might succeed him.

Embalo, a former army general who served as prime minister under Vaz, took office amid a longstanding political deadlock. Since Guinea-Bissau gained independence from Portugal in 1974, it has been plagued by frequent coups and political unrest. Embalo’s presidency was no exception. He faced two coup attempts during his time in office, the most recent of which took place in December 2023. Following that attempt, he dissolved the country's parliament for the second time since his term began.

Embalo had previously dissolved the parliament in May 2022, hoping to push through a constitutional change that would have allowed him to consolidate power by ending Guinea-Bissau’s semi-presidential system. Under the current system, the party or coalition with the parliamentary majority forms the government, but the president retains the power to dismiss it under certain conditions. This arrangement has often led to political gridlock, with frequent clashes between the executive and legislative branches.

Adding to the country’s troubles, Guinea-Bissau has also become a significant hub for cocaine trafficking in recent years. In the early 2000s, the country emerged as a key transit point for drugs moving from Latin America to Europe. Just this past Saturday, police seized 2.63 tons of cocaine from an airplane that had arrived from Venezuela, underscoring the ongoing challenges the nation faces.

With Embalo’s departure from the political scene and the country’s history of instability, the upcoming elections in November are likely to be closely watched. Many fear that the absence of a clear successor could create a power vacuum, further complicating Guinea-Bissau's fragile political landscape.